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Josh Maher's Blog » blogging » 2007 Prediction: Blogs will be replaced

2007 Prediction: Blogs will be replaced

December 18th, 2006 | Add a Comment

Yes, that’s right, my ProBlogger prediction for the new year is:

Blogs will be Replaced in 2007

No, it’s not ubsurd, unless of course something changes the facts are already here:

Now wait a minute….what do all these things mean?

It may be difficult to read through the lines, but I have done the work for you!

If Dave (the father of blogging) Winer stops blogging, it’s sort of like the time has come for blogging (Dave’s Child) to go out on it’s own. Yes that’s right, Dave cared for this child through school, and now decided to let it live at home through college. Now he is going to push his precious little baby out on it’s own to survive without Daddy. Now there are a few good friends to help; but, I think blogging will make up it’s own mind without it’s father’s influence….and the mainstream marketers will do what they are good at and transform the young blogging mind into another daily annoyance on the net.

The good news is we entered the top before we stopped. With Time’s award, we have enough momentum to make it through to late next year. A few more events and important thing can happen before the end…..but having already won the award of the year….there is no where else to go but down.

Google is the trend setter for the new web <insert revision number here>, Microsoft copies them, Yahoo copies them, and everyone wants to build an app to sell to them. But what have they done? They are moving to wikis, office applications, and video……It’s a sign of the changes

Microsoft is going to ruin RSS reading, the Vista RSS platform will be the reader everyone uses. There are no questions about it and you can’t deny it. Once every household has RSS reading built into their OS and viewable in the multitude of applications installed on their OS….well all of these start pages, installable programs, and plugins will become obsolete. They will still live on stolen copies of the XP, Linux, and all the other operating systems that are not used that often.

There may be people with other opinons out there, but before you give them to me……..

I suggest you think about what the people you desire to connect with really want. Of course they want to get independant news delivered to them over a simple syndication…..but everyone is doing that now…..When Blogs were the new cool kid on the block, they were run by unique passionate individuals who would do anything to help you make them work, now they are run by community managers, consultants, and marketers who could care less about you or what you think. They read sites like ProBlogger to get tips on how to write a blog so it sounds more personal…..

This is all strong evidence that the essence of the blog is dead!

As an independant journalist, social leader, industry influencer, or Plain Old Geek on the net, I recomend you start playing with some of the new ways to connect to people. Create a new way to make things happen, innovate with existing technologies, or find what your social circle really wants to get from you and make that happen…..

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  • http://storagezilla.vox.com Storagezilla

    Predicting Blogs will be replaced is like predicting the Sun will rise. They money is in predicting what’ll come after blogging. :)

  • http://joshmaher.wordpress.com/ joshmaher

    The problem isn’t predicting what the next technology will be…..it’s finding out who is creating it so I can put some money into the company!!

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  • http://www.jasonkolb.com Jason Kolb

    I’d argue with the Vista RSS Reader one, I don’t see Vista gaining much traction. The only place Vista is going to see a lot of sales is with new PC’s, and I think those are the users LEAST likely to use RSS.

  • http://brandoncwood.com Brandon Wood

    That’s an interesting prediction Josh, though I tend to disagree. I only see blogging becoming bigger and more influential in the coming years.

    You can see my predictions for 2007 here.

  • http://lilduckduck.com Mama Duck

    Well, it depends on your topic and focus of your blog. Mine acts also as a resource for parents of toddlers and I get a lot of people coming in for my articles on a certain topic, not really for the blogginess of it. It acts nicely as a regular resource website which I think will be useful in years to come. Plus I have the business, so even if the personal aspect of blogging disappears, I’m ready to adapt there. I think something similar will continue though as people look more and more for personal relationships/friendship online with people who are like them (other parents, in my case, basically, not dating or anything).

    We also participated in this project, stop on by if you get a chance!

  • http://joshmaher.wordpress.com/ joshmaher

    Jason, that’s the point all of the Vista users (new PCs and corporate accounts) that don’t use RSS now have an easy way to become users. With this kind of penetration….marketing will be able to justify the cost of taking over the medium

    Brandon, yes bigger, but how will it be more influential if there are advertisements in every RSS feed and a good majority of the blogs are only written for money anyway? Look at things like craigslist – immensely popular with a loyal fanbase – but it hasn’t changed because the owner (Craig) can still provide leadership for the idea behind it – the open idea of blogging won’t have that kind of guidance

  • http://brokeass-student.typepad.com/ Jennifer Lynn

    I agree with Brandon actually, but I’m only a newbie blogger. However, there will always be passionate and excellent writers out there who will continually provide a genuine resource to the public through their blogs.

    I do believe that there will be a massive crunch of non-quality blogs floating about as more people try to capitalize on them (but for the wrong reasons). These blogs will probably eventually fall by the wayside in a few months as they grow discouraged and bored.

    I see blogs as being an exciting new wave of journalism in various forms. Your article was very interesting and had some valid points. But I don’t feel they will disappear quite as quickly as you’re anticipating.

  • http://medicalstudy.blogspot.com/2006/12/incursion-into-blogosphere-post-fairy.html Yan

    I think I agree with all the above points except the one where the essence of blog is dead. I think that for developed countries, people are oblivious now with the phenomenon of blogging. But in countries like mine, where people are discovering blogging for the first time, it has become an actual craze!

    The fact that Time awarded us bloggers as People of the year 2006 is proof enough that blogging has become a powerful mass communication tool. The only change I foresee is a trend in journalism whereby journalists will have to suffer severe competition from millions of bloggers around the world just to stay on track.

    Blogging is still alive and growing at an exponential rate. I’m sure, like me, there are people who surf most of the time just for the sake of blogging and blog-reading.

    Anyway I also participated in Darren’s Group Writing Project. Do pass by when you have time!

  • http://www.rodtempleton.net/blog Rod

    Interesting viewpoint. Can’t say that I completely agree, but I guess we’ll have to see next December.

  • http://technospot.net/blogs/ Ashish Mohta

    It depends , even if something comes up that will replace blog wont take away blogs in one shot.Repalcing a tech takes time.

    Vista has no doubt some amazing feature.

    The boom of blogging is yet to come and getting replaced will be diffcult

  • http://www.thesimpledollar.com/ Trent

    Blogs are just a mechanism for individual content providers to connect with people interested in that content. It happens to be an efficient one, and it will stay popular until people discover a more efficient route.

  • http://joshmaher.wordpress.com/ joshmaher

    All good points here(Jennifer, Yan, Ashish, & Trent) and you are all effectively agreeing with my point that blogging is an effective tool to express individual communication with others. I just think it will be more difficult to be an individual using a blog as more people get a hold of this tool. If it’s more difficult, someone will have to find a tool that allows the individualism without the marketing.

  • http://article.lunatechpcs.com/blog Robert

    All blogging is, is a form of content management and it will not be gotten rid of or replaced.

    Though it can be improved upon…

  • http://exidealist.wordpress.com/ GJD

    Hmm, yeah they are just “Web Sites”.
    Better web sites but web sites all the same.
    If everyone is going to have feeds delivered to their Vista desktops wouldn’t it make sense to have the web just full of text submitted via a desktop application?
    Oh hang on.
    That’s a litte backwards.

  • http://www.whoismadhur.com Madhur Kapoor

    yeah even if blogs do get replaced eventually …it will be a slow process…

  • http://www.tingram.ca Tyler Ingram

    I think blogging will always be around. Like some of the other comments above its a good place for people to ‘voice’ their opinon about topics they enjoy.

    A for RSS Feeds etc, I personally don’t like to make mine Full Feeds because Full Feeds I believe would hinder traffic to my site. I try to entice them within the first sentence or two so that they will have to visit to read the rest. Some people agree, some disagree :)

  • http://www.teczcape.blogspot.com/ tigerfish

    Thx for coming by my blog. As a newbie, I don’t disagree…BUT there are always people who do it just for $, and another group that does it for the love of writing and sharing.

    May the Force be with you, the Blo-gedi way

  • http://joshmaher.wordpress.com/2006/12/18/2007-prediction-blogs-will-be-replaced/ Msterilinn

    Alrighty then.. all these predictions. It will be interesting to see who comes closest to the mark! ;-)

    Enjoy,

    Teri
    ~

  • http://joshmaher.wordpress.com/ joshmaher

    Absolutely tigerfish!!

  • http://ventureskills.wordpress.com/ ventureskills

    I think Blogs will be with us in 2007 though competing in a more diluted market particularly in a user driven world, where high bandwidth allows us to stream HD video, if a picture is worth a thousand words what’s a video worth?
    Like many here I’m taking part in the Group project as well on my personal blog
    You don’t have to be a writer to be a blogger!

    Tim

  • http://writingaspirations.blogspot.com Rashenbo

    That’s certainly an interesting post. I think blogs have their place and I imagine they will continue to exist. :) They may just change with the times. I’d like to see fewer blogs in some areas and more blogs in others… but I do think it depends on the content and popularity of the information.

    Your comments on RSS are interesting. I’m not as big on RSS these days… but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a few feed readers that I log in to now and again.

    I found you on the Problogger predictions and reviews list and thought I’d pop in to say hi.

  • http://www.gpssytem.com gps system

    “Google is ditching blogging”, lol

    Guess they’ll be closing the just barely 1 year old http://blogsearch.google.com/ then?

    And why did they just add blogs to their alert service?

    http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2006/10/on-alert-for-bloggers.html

    And why did they just spend so much effort redesigning google reader?

    http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/google_reader_redesign.php

    When they are ditching blogging?

  • http://www.in-sidemarketing.blogspot.com Brad Shorr

    Blogs are changing and multiplying rapidly in terms of purpose, content, structure, etc. One type of blog where I see lots of growth is the business blog (see my pGroup Project post). For good or bad, business blogs make economic sense, so they’ll be used.

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  • http://www.cjcm2u.com cjcm

    No blogging will not die… yet. It will be even bigger. :)

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  • Kyle H

    Predicting that the blog is dead is like saying that goth is dead, or rock is dead. While it certainly won’t be the same after the pros get into it and start the landslide of Popular Momentum, the beauty of the Internet is that links are easy. You might not be able to find the blogs you want to find as easily, though… and that’s the biggest problem, the biggest thing to find a solution to.

  • http://joshmaher.wordpress.com/ joshmaher

    Well if you look at the buzz twitter has gotten, and Robert Scoble’s decline in blogging (replaced by his link log + twitter)…..one could argue this has already happened.

    I would take it even further to say that blogs as we knew them will be mostly gone by the end of the year….although there will still be the few of us keeping with it and waiting for the next new thing to mature…..

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  • http://photo.aliveaquarium.com/ flukso

    What can Twitter actually do for my business?